WTO says AI demand cushions trade disruptions, but 3.9% growth is still a forecast

What the WTO counts as AI-related trade

The WTO’s AI-enabling-goods category is broader than finished AI products. Its framework includes materials and processed chemicals, intermediate inputs and equipment used in AI-related production and infrastructure. The product list is based on six-digit Harmonized System codes, customs categories used to classify goods.

That approach captures trade in goods that can support AI infrastructure, but it does not measure trade in AI software or services, or the overall economic value of AI. Nor does a product’s inclusion establish that every unit was used for AI. The 47% figure describes the WTO’s estimate of how much these selected goods contributed to first-half growth in global merchandise trade; it is not AI’s share of exports or of the economy.

The WTO says investment in AI infrastructure has boosted demand for this basket. It projects global AI-infrastructure spending will grow at least 30% in 2026, and cites current market projections for AI capital-expenditure growth of 10% to 20% in 2027. Those figures are projections, not reported spending outcomes, and the WTO’s outlook depends in part on that investment remaining strong.

How conflict and supply-chain shifts enter the forecast

The WTO’s account combines that AI-related demand with companies and trading partners adapting to disruption in energy and fertilizer markets. The conflict has constrained shipments from the Middle East, but increased supplies from other sources have limited the effect on global exports, the WTO says.

In the first half, Middle East crude-oil exports fell about 24% and liquefied-natural-gas exports fell 47%, according to the WTO. It estimates global exports declined by about 6% for crude oil and 1% for LNG, after additional shipments from elsewhere helped make up some of the shortfall. That is one example of the supply-chain adjustment the WTO cites; it does not mean the disruption had no cost.

The March forecast set a baseline of 1.9% growth in merchandise-trade volume for 2026. At the time, the WTO also modeled a 1.4% growth scenario if energy prices were higher, and said sustained AI investment could add 0.5 percentage points to growth. The October revision reflects stronger-than-expected first-half trade and the WTO’s assessment of conditions for the rest of the year.

The outlook still expects conflict-related pressure through higher energy costs and transport disruption. But the published summary does not give a single specific path for how long the conflict will last, how energy prices will change or which shipping routes will face disruption. Those uncertainties matter to a forecast that combines the strength of AI investment with the effects of changing trade conditions.

What the forecast says about trade overall

The goods outlook is more positive than the WTO’s services outlook. It cut its 2026 commercial-services trade-volume growth forecast to 3.3%, from 4.8% in March, citing conflict-related effects on transport and travel. The 3.9% goods figure therefore should not be presented as a forecast for total trade, which includes services as well as merchandise.

The aggregate growth estimate also does not imply that every region or industry benefits. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has described the resilience as uneven and said access to AI-related opportunities is not universal. A stronger global goods-trade forecast can coexist with losses in sectors exposed to disrupted transport or higher energy costs.

The WTO forecasts merchandise-trade volume growth of 4.1% in 2027. For 2026, the key measure to watch is the final annual result: the first-half growth figure is already reported, but the 3.9% projection depends on how trade performs in the months ahead. The WTO’s estimate of AI’s contribution also rests on a selected goods category, rather than a direct count of AI products or services.