Analysts forecast more than 50% growth in Alibaba AI cloud revenue for September quarter

What Alibaba reported in the June quarter

Alibaba reported AI Cloud and Compute Services revenue of RMB48,437 million (US$7,139 million) for the three months ended June 30, up 45% from a year earlier. The company released the figures on Aug. 20.

Alibaba said public-cloud revenue was the main driver of cloud growth, including increased adoption of AI-related products. The company did not report a separate revenue figure for those products, so the segment results do not show how much of its growth came specifically from AI-related sales.

The segment’s adjusted EBITA, or adjusted earnings before interest, taxes and amortization, rose 133% year over year to RMB5,628 million (US$830 million), Alibaba reported. That is a measure of the June quarter’s results, not confirmation of the margin increase analysts expect for September.

Alibaba also reported June-quarter capital expenditure of RMB67,678 million (US$9,975 million). It attributed part of the significant year-over-year increase to adding central processing unit (CPU) computing capacity in anticipation of AI-agent adoption, as well as higher chip-component prices.

What Alibaba’s investment plans establish

The reported quarterly capital expenditure is separate from Alibaba’s multiyear investment plan. On Feb. 24, 2025, the company announced it would invest at least RMB380 billion (US$53 billion) in AI and cloud infrastructure over three years. Alibaba later said it would continue the program; the announcement does not establish that the full amount has been spent.

Alibaba has also set a target for its global cloud data-center capacity to exceed 20 gigawatts by 2032. That is a company goal, not a report that the capacity has already been built or is operating.

Together, the quarterly spending and longer-term plans show the scale of the infrastructure effort Alibaba has described. They do not demonstrate that this spending caused the analysts’ September-quarter forecast or that it will produce a particular return.

What the forecast can—and cannot—show

If the projection is accurate, the September quarter would mark faster year-over-year revenue growth for the unit than the 45% Alibaba reported for June. But the report does not explain which assumptions led analysts to expect that acceleration.

The company’s June results offer some context: Alibaba connected cloud growth primarily to public-cloud revenue and said adoption of AI-related products had increased. Without a separate AI-product revenue figure, however, those results cannot establish how much AI sales contributed to overall segment growth.

The gap between the reported June figures and the September forecast also matters for assessing margins. Alibaba reported a 133% increase in adjusted EBITA in June, while the September margin improvement remains an analyst expectation, not an achieved result in the information available here.

Alibaba’s September-quarter results will show the company’s reported revenue and margins. The cited materials do not establish when those results will be published or whether they will separate AI-related product revenue from other cloud and compute services.